Pune, India | January 05, 2026
The expiry of the generic semaglutide patent is creating a massive opportunity for India’s pharmaceutical industry. Analysts predict this event will improve treatment access and strengthen global competitiveness.
Patent protections for semaglutide medicines will soon end in India, Brazil, Canada, and other emerging markets. Therefore, multiple companies can launch generic semaglutide products without delay. Experts estimate the cumulative revenue could exceed Rs 50,000 crore.
Domestic branded formulations are expected to earn between Rs 10 billion and Rs 20 billion in FY27 as generic semaglutide becomes widely available. Meanwhile, Canada and Brazil may contribute about Rs 45 billion, while other emerging markets could add Rs 5–10 billion.
The introduction of generic semaglutide will reduce prices by 30–50% initially. Over the next few years, reductions may reach 70–75%. As a result, GLP-1 therapies for diabetes and obesity will become more affordable.
The market will likely stay concentrated among five to ten major players despite competition. Indian companies, such as Alkem Laboratories, Dr. Reddy’s, and Sun Pharmaceuticals, have received approvals. Other firms are preparing launches, aiming for early market capture.
Zydus Lifesciences is creating a differentiated injectable generic semaglutide, which may provide an advantage despite a smaller diabetes portfolio. This approach could help capture initial market share.
Regulated markets, including Canada and Brazil, present an annual opportunity near USD 2 billion. If generics secure 50% market share with 50% price reductions, companies could earn around USD 500 million in these regions.
Competition will intensify, and pricing pressures may affect short-term margins. Therefore, firms need careful planning for regulatory approvals and marketing strategies to maximize revenue and reach.
Emerging markets offer long-term growth opportunities due to fewer regulatory hurdles. Indian companies like Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s, Alkem, Biocon, and OneSource Specialty Pharma can leverage existing distribution networks for generic semaglutide.
Pen device and delivery system suppliers may also see rising demand as injectable therapies require compatible tools. Consequently, the entire pharmaceutical supply chain could benefit from generic semaglutide expansion.
Lower prices are likely to accelerate adoption of GLP-1 therapies globally. As a result, patients previously unable to afford branded semaglutide will now access treatment.
Branded manufacturers may lose market share due to aggressive generic pricing. Similar patterns occurred in other therapeutic segments, where generics significantly reduced costs. Healthcare providers are expected to recommend generic semaglutide widely, as affordability improves without reducing efficacy.
Patent expiry alone does not ensure smooth market entry. Companies must manage secondary patents, regulatory approvals, and legal challenges. Indian courts have allowed exports while restricting domestic sales until expiry, requiring strategic international launch planning.
Analysts remain optimistic. The convergence of patent expiry, market readiness, and unmet patient demand creates one of the largest opportunities in recent years. The launch of generic semaglutide may significantly expand access worldwide.
India’s pharmaceutical sector could see 0.5–1% growth in FY27 from revenue generated by generic semaglutide and associated innovations. Timely approvals, strategic investments, and competitive pricing will maximize the opportunity globally.
