New Delhi, India, 04 September 2025– China’s electric vehicle leader, BYD, is taking a more cautious approach in 2025 by lowering its full-year sales target. The company now expects to sell 4.6 million vehicles, significantly less than its previous forecast of 5.5 million units.
This 16% reduction marks a shift in tone from BYD’s usual aggressive growth strategy. Insiders revealed the new target was shared with suppliers in August, reflecting adjustments in factory planning and output levels.
The revision comes as the company faces increasing headwinds in both the economy and the domestic EV market. Just last week, BYD posted a 30% drop in quarterly profits, its first profit decline in over three years. Falling margins, a tighter price war, and softening demand are weighing heavily on performance.
Even though the revised goal still represents growth over last year’s 4.3 million vehicle total, it signals a dramatic slowdown. Between 2020 and 2024, BYD’s sales soared nearly tenfold, putting it alongside major global automakers in volume. That momentum, however, appears to be losing pace.
Demand is weakening, particularly in China, BYD’s most important market, which accounts for almost 80% of its sales. Consumers are spending less as deflation, a slumping property market, and economic uncertainty linger. EV buyers are becoming more selective, especially as new competitors enter the scene.
Geely Auto, for instance, recently raised its own 2025 sales goal to 3 million units, up from 2.71 million last year. It’s also gaining market share in the budget EV category, once BYD’s stronghold. In July, BYD’s budget car sales dropped 9.6% year-on-year, while Geely’s surged 90% in the same segment.
This shift in consumer preference has forced BYD to rethink production strategies. The company has reportedly slowed output in recent months and delayed expansion plans at several domestic plants. According to industry sources, it has also asked key suppliers to cut deliveries to match the revised outlook.
Previously, BYD relied heavily on vertical integration to support rapid growth. Manufacturing most components in-house allowed it to reduce costs and maintain speed to market. But as rivals now use similar models, BYD’s efficiency advantage may be shrinking.
These pressures are reshaping the electric vehicle landscape in China. More automakers are crowding the market, offering cheaper alternatives that appeal to budget-conscious consumers. The resulting price wars are squeezing profits and making long-term planning more difficult.
While BYD has not made the revised sales target public, its actions speak volumes. Two straight months of declining production, July and August, signal that the slowdown is real. It’s the first such decline since 2020, and the company seems to be entering a more defensive phase.
Analysts are watching closely to see how this story unfolds. Deutsche Bank now forecasts 4.7 million units for BYD this year, while Morningstar predicts 4.8 million, both above the company’s internal goal. That gap suggests market expectations may still be too high.
Some experts view this as a natural pause after years of rapid expansion. Others argue that structural issues, rising competition, weakening demand, and pricing pressure could signal deeper challenges ahead. Either way, BYD’s performance over the next year will be closely scrutinized.
For the moment, the company appears focused on adjusting to current realities rather than chasing growth at any cost. That might be a wise move in a market where consumer behavior, economic signals, and competition can all shift quickly.
In a rapidly maturing EV industry, BYD’s ability to adapt will matter more than ever. The road ahead may be tougher, but strategic moves now could set the stage for long-term resilience.
